I’m not giving any news when I say that Klay Thompson’s performance in the 2021-22 season was not his best work, or anything like that.
That doesn’t mean it was bad. The beloved escort was still a key member of the golden state warriors championship winner equipment. He still started each of the 32 regular-season games he appeared in and all 22 postseason contests. She won an ESPY for Comeback Athlete of the Year, and it was incredibly well deserved.
But after two-and-a-half years on the sidelines, two major lower-body surgeries and thousands of hours of rehabilitation, it wasn’t surprising that Klay’s game wasn’t on par with the performance that earned him five straight trips to the All-Star team. -. Star Game during the Dubs’ dynastic career.
His efficiency took a big hit, as he shot 38.5% from distance, marking the first time in his career that he failed to hit the 40% mark. His normally sky-high true shooting percentage was comfortably below league average. And his defense was not at the level we expected.
But while those matches may not have surprised you given what Thompson had to overcome and the rust he picked up along the way, here’s something that will likely surprise you: Advanced stats still loved him.
The all-encompassing advanced metric these days, relied on by many front office analysts, is EPM (plus-minus estimate). And according to EPM, Klay ranked 40th in the league this year and fourth on the Warriors, behind only Steph Curry (No. 4), Gary Payton II (No. 30) and Draymond Green (No. 36). And lest you think EPM is just a random hodgepodge of numbers and players, here are the five players directly in front of him: Anthony Davis, Green, Deandre Ayton, DeMar DeRozan and Marcus Smart. And here are the five directly behind him: Derrick White, Al Horford, Domantas Sabonis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and LaMelo Ball.
Pretty good company.
Take a look at other advanced stats and you will find many of the same.
There are probably many reasons Thompson got such good ratings despite what seemed like an offseason. The most obvious is that Thompson is an exceptional player and a future Hall of Famer, even when he’s not at his best, he’s still really good. It was also very clear that opposing teams weren’t buying Klay rusty, even on days when he racked up miss after miss, opponents sent multiple defenders in his direction, tried to give him no space even when he was 30 hoop feet. , and he went through all the screens to try to get the sweater off her. Even when Curry was on the bench, you could see how much Thompson’s gravity opened up the offense. That allowed the offense to work much better when he was on the floor, despite some shooting percentages that weren’t very fun to watch.
Still, there’s a reason there’s a disconnect between advanced metrics and the public’s perception of Klay’s game. If he repeats his 2021-22 next season, he will certainly have a strong impact on the team’s quest to repeat, but he won’t be viewed the same way he used to be.
So I’m curious: Will he return to his All-Star form and don the celebration jersey in February 2023?
There are two big reasons to think that it won’t. The first is that you can’t assume you’ll be able to rinse off all the rust by the time the season rolls around. Possibly never, for that matter. And the second is that the West is absolutely stacked.
Look at this list of names:
steph curry
Dramond Green
Andrew Wiggins
Lebron James
anthony davis
Kawhi Leonard
paul george
Nikola Jokic
jamal murray
Karl-Anthony villages
Rudy Goberto
anthony edwards
ha morant
Damian Lillard
zion williamson
Brandon Ingram
CJ McCollum
Chris Paul
Devin Booker
Deandre Ayton
donovan mitchell
Luka Doncic
If Klay makes the All-Star team, then a whopping 11 names on that list will have to be omitted (assuming no injury replacements). And that’s not counting breakout seasons for candidates like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Green, resurgent seasons for players like Domantas Sabonis and Russell Westbrook, or potential West Coast additions for Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant.
But the reasons to think Thompson will make his sixth All-Star Game are perhaps even more prominent. I mean, if he was able to be something like the 40th most valuable player in the league despite being covered in rust and shooting poorly (relative to his worldwide expectations), then imagine how good he could be after he got some of that rust off. . , have a full offseason without rehab, and be able to participate in training camp.
If you take Thompson 2021-22, increase his 3-point shooting up to 41% and improve his defense a bit, and you have an All-Star on your hands.
It may not happen. But then again… he definitely could.