This offseason, as players take turns carrying the Larry O’Brien Trophy to their hometowns for parades and parties, the golden state warriorsThe front office must consider a less pleasant reality: the threat of a financial reckoning.
Barring massive expansions in the coming months, the guard jordan poole and forward Andrew Wiggins they will become free agents next summer. To return those two to their projected market values while you pay Stephen Curry, Dramond Green, klay thompson and the rest of the players already on their books, the Warriors could face a total 2023-24 payroll (salaries and luxury taxes) north of $500 million.
Majority owner Joe Lacob sees that as an impossibility. The Warriors doled out an NBA-record total payroll of around $362 million last season, and they’re loath to cross the $400 million threshold. Although Green and Thompson are both eligible for extensions this summer, Golden State’s brass know their most critical dilemma boils down to one option: Keep Poole or keep Wiggins?
Before making such a big decision, the Warriors would do well to see how both players progress over the next 12 months. But right now, given all the information available, Poole seems more likely to be the outsider. The reason is simple: Two-way wings like Wiggins are harder to find than strike-first shooting guards like Poole.
if the warriors try to extend poole this summer, they probably need to start the conversation around four years, $105 million. Anfernee Simons’ four-year, $100 million extension with Portland and Jalen Brunson’s four-year, $104 million contract with the Knicks required both.
But given how Poole was vital to a champion team this past season, few could blame him for asking for more. The question is whether that would be a wise use of the Warriors’ resources.
Green reportedly wants a maximum contract extension of four years. If the Warriors gave him that, he would pay him $30.9 million in 2023-24, $3.4 million more than his current player option for that season.
Thompson is contracted through 2023-24 and is content to wait until next summer for a possible extension. By allowing Poole to sign a big contract elsewhere in restricted free agency next summer, the Warriors’ projected payroll for 2023-24, including Green’s extension, could drop from more than $500 million to less than $350 million. millions.
That’s an acceptable number for Lacob, who showed how determined he is to keep costs down when did not re-sign guard Gary Payton II and defenders of Otto Porter Jr. Poole would argue that the Warriors could cut even more money from their projected payroll by parting ways with Wiggins. But even if that’s true, Golden State must think about replacing the production of each player.
Just a few months ago, the Warriors seemed destined to pass wiggins. Now after being the second best player in the playoffs for a champion team, he suddenly looks like a franchise building block: the kind of small forward who can make life difficult for the opponent’s leading scorer, rebound at a high rate and offer an efficient No. 2 option to Curry.
The Warriors need to think about more title runs, and Wiggins has shown he can be trusted on the biggest stages. His defense over Luka Doncic in the Western Conference finals and Jayson Tatum in the NBA Finals was a driving force behind Golden State’s fourth championship in eight years.
During the playoffs, the Warriors outscored opponents by 14.4 more points per 100 possessions with Wiggins on the court than without him, the best differential on the team. As for Poole? The Warriors were slightly worse with him than without him during the postseason, which can be attributed to his lackluster defense.
with curry now solid defensively, Poole was the only player in Golden State’s top eight rotation who was a risk on that side. That matters. While few doubt his offensive potential, he doesn’t necessarily have the tools to become an above-average defender.
Teams like the Spurs and Magic that could extend him a max or near-max offer sheet in restricted free agency wouldn’t be as concerned about Poole’s defense because they’re just trying to make the playoffs. Until a franchise proves it can make the postseason consistently, it will always focus more on a player’s scoring ability.
If the Warriors allow Poole to sign elsewhere next summer, his defensive advances in his absence would help negate some of what they would lose with their offense. While Golden State doesn’t have as polished a young scorer as Poole, it does have up-and-comers like jonathan kuminga, grumpy moses Y James Wisemann with significant offensive potential.
Poole’s departure would mean more opportunities for that group to develop their arsenal of post moves, floaters and jump shots. If Wiggins were the one to go, the Warriors don’t necessarily have anyone who can replace his two-way production. Thompson would have to re-establish himself as the team’s primary perimeter defender, a responsibility he may not be ready to take on again.
There is also the issue of age. At 27, Wiggins should still be in his prime once Curry (34), Green (32) and Thompson (32) fade or retire. It’s easy to imagine Wiggins serving as a 30-minute-a-night elder statesman for Kuminga, Moody and Wiseman.
Fresh off his 23rd birthday, Poole is part of the Warriors’ young core, not a potential bridge between generations. The odds of Golden State being out of contention after Curry, Green and Thompson retire are much higher if Poole stays with Wiggins.
The good news for the Warriors is that they have the luxury of time. Although the front office is expected to discuss the extensions with Poole and Wiggins in the coming days, he reckons it might be best to see how the next season plays out.
The only certainty: One day in the relatively near future, the Warriors will face a financial reckoning. How they emerge could shape the long-term future of the franchise.
Connor Letourneau is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @Con_Chron