More than one climate diplomat used the word “minimum” to describe the climate measures in the Reduce Inflation Act, which analysts predict would reduce US emissions by 40 percent by the end of the decade compared to at 2005 levels. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates it would spend about $385 billion to combat climate change and boost energy production.
“It’s a step forward,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy for Climate Action Network International, a coalition of nonprofit groups that advocates for emissions reductions, clean energy policies and environmental justice. “But the international community would call it a baby step when in reality we need a leap.”
Singh, who lives in New Delhi, noted that the United States is the world’s largest historical emitter, responsible for more than 20 percent of all greenhouse gases generated since 1850. It is also the world’s largest economy, meaning which has more capacity. than any other nation to make the necessary investments to move away from fossil fuels.
According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, nations must halve emissions by 2030 to have a fair chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. , a threshold that scientists say would save millions of lives in vulnerable communities and prevent a dangerous escalation of climate disasters.
To reach this goal, the United States pledged last year to cut its planet-warming pollution to 52 percent below 2005 levels. More executive and policy action at the state level would be required to make up the shortfall between the pledge of Biden and what could be achieved through the legislation.
“This will surely help increase the credibility of the United States on the international stage and support its active international diplomacy,” said a senior European climate official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments of the deal’s consequences. “If passed, it could help with politics at an important time” ahead of a new round of climate talks in Egypt this fall.
“But you can’t get a big economy to net zero without regulation. And many would like to see more funding for international climate finance, where US shortfalls have already pushed the world off the $100 billion target,” the official said.
Either legislation provide funds to help vulnerable countries already struggling with extreme heat, persistent drought, rising sea levels and a spate of other climate shocks, despite multiple promises that the United States would do so.
In comments Wednesday, Biden called the Inflation Reduction Act a “major step forward” that would help the United States meet its global climate commitments, though he noted that it falls short of the $555 billion package he had proposed earlier. of the Glasgow climate talks last autumn. .
The United States has only delivered $1 billion of a $3 billion pledge to the United Nations Green Climate Fund made under former President Barack Obama. last fall Biden pledged to quadruple that amountto $11.4 billion, but Congress has yet to appropriate that additional money.
And while Biden sought about $11 billion for international climate finance in his most recent budget request, it’s unclear whether Congress will allocate those funds.
“Comprehensive climate action means not only reducing emissions at the national level, but also providing technology and financial support so that we as a global community can get out of the crisis,” Singh said. “No one is safe until everyone is safe. That’s the kind of situation we’re in.”
David Waskow, director of international climate action at the World Resources Institute, said there were some provisions that will give US negotiators more leverage at the UN climate talks in Egypt this fall as they urge other countries to bolster their own ambitions. He was especially encouraged by the $1.5 billion Methane Emissions Reduction Program, which would incentivize oil and gas companies to reduce their emissions of the potent planet-warming gas.
Last year, the United States helped lead a coalition of more than 100 countries that pledged to cut methane 30 percent by 2030. But analyzes show that methane emissions in key fossil-fuel-producing areas like the Basin Permian, have skyrocketed in the months. from that engagement.
This program, along with efforts to curb pollution from agriculture, will add a “real boost” to efforts to curb emissions of a gas whose immediate climate-warming power is 80 times greater than that of carbon dioxide, Waskow said.
Still others argued the invoice doesn’t do as much as it could.
Singh pointed to provisions in the climate deal that would encourage continued investment in fossil fuels, such as a requirement that the federal government allow more oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changethe International Energy Agency and other leading research groups have said the world cannot afford to develop new fossil fuel infrastructure in hopes of reaching the 1.5 degree Celsius goal.
US policy “sets the tone for the kind of transition we need to make,” Singh said. By promoting more oil and gas projects, “to me, it still shows lukewarm leadership on climate action.”
But some experts said they were happy about the win.
“Progress on a US climate package is good news,” Conrod Hunte, a diplomat from Antigua and Barbuda and chief negotiator for a group of small island states working together on international climate policy, said in an email. He added that the group hopes to see the United States and “other big emitters demonstrate leadership with urgent action in the climate space to reduce CO2 or decarbonize.”
Carlos Fuller, a longtime negotiator in global climate talks and Permanent Representative of Belize to the United Nations, said in a message to The Washington Post that it was “certainly a big step forward, especially after the disappointing Supreme Court ruling against the EPA.”
Fuller lamented that the bill “includes new oil drilling” but said “auto industry support for electric mobility is great as this will trickle down to those countries that import US vehicles.”
“One could ask for more, one could always do more,” said Anders Levermann, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. But he said that he thought it was an important step.
“The climate deal as it stands, as I have read it, is trying to induce structural change,” Levermann said. “If the United States moves towards carbon neutrality, then the rest of the world will not be able to ignore that.”
And while the world looks at Biden number of polls in declinemany fear that anything America does now could easily fall apart if Republicans win the White House in 2024. Solar panels may not be uninstalled in that scenario, But a US president who is hostile to international climate talks would be a major setback for the broader effort to get the world’s biggest polluters, including China and India, to agree to step up efforts to cut their emissions.
“Getting a deal done in Washington is the least the United States should do,” said another senior European diplomat involved in climate talks.
“I don’t expect the champagne to burst,” the diplomat said. “Maybe a sigh of relief that there will be some climate action in the US for the next two years. But with another administration change looming on the horizon, it’s hard to talk about restoring credibility.”
Brady Dennis contributed to this report.