In what has now become an annual tradition, we return to talk about Seth Partnow’s NBA player levels. To refresh your memory, we covered the 2020 Y 2021 previous editions, and once again only two Spurs made it this time.
Again, Partnow relied heavily on Over-Under estimate (EPM) and one-year Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) for analysis, which are widely considered two of the best advanced statistics available today.
Before diving into notable players, it’s important to understand why the use of levels is often more useful than a generic ranking. In my opinion, the biggest advantage of the levels is that they can represent the different roles that the players occupy. For example, Player A may have skills that make him extremely valuable as a role player in Contenders, but he may not shine as well on a more mediocre team.
On the other hand, Player B might be better suited as a ground-lifter who can carry a lackluster roster to the playoffs, but his ball-dominant nature might not be as useful in a contender with better players.
Is one player more valuable than the other? Well, it’s hard to quantify in a vacuum, so putting them on the same level makes more sense than strictly labeling one the 47th-best player in the league and the other the 55th-best.
It’s also worth noting that some levels also have levels within themselves (Inception, anyone?). I have featured them below along with some players to give you an idea of the differences between each level.
Tier 1 (MVP Tier Cornerstones) – Includes 1A (Giannis Antetokounmpo), 1B (Luka Doncic), and 1C (LeBron James)
Tier 2 (All-NBA Franchise Players): Includes 2A (Jayson Tatum), 2B (Anthony Davis), and 2C (Paul George)
Tier 3 (Solid All-Stars) – Includes 3A (Jrue Holiday), 3B (Bradley Beal), and 3C (Anthony Edwards)
Level 4 (Fringe All-Stars/Above Average Starters) – Includes 4A (Fred VanVleet) and 4B (John Collins)
Tier 5 (Above Average Rotation Pieces) – Includes only 5A (PJ Tucker)
Notable Spurs and ex-Spurs
Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl were the only current Spurs to make the list (both were at tier 5A), while Dejounte Murray (4A), DeMar DeRozan (3B) and Derrick White (4B) were the other notable former Spurs included. .
Of those five, I found Derrick and Dejounte’s placements to be slightly questionable. I would have expected the latter to be at the 3C level, but I’m assuming the counterargument is that he’s only a one-time All-Star who did it as an injury replacement and doesn’t have a long history of being a “star.” .” Meanwhile, Derrick has been underrated for a long time and can definitely be a starting point guard on most teams, but I personally think he’s closer to being a 5A player.
For reference, 3A and 3B players are probably good enough to be second choice in a legitimate contender, while 3C and 4A players are probably better suited as a third banana. Given the seasons DeMar and Dejounte just had, it’s reasonable to think they may be the #2 and #3 best players on a championship-level roster, but placing Derrick at tier 4 also seems a little tough. to reach, especially as he struggled through big stretches of the playoffs.
As I mentioned before, tuning is really one of the most important elements of how players are analyzed. Benchmark: Draymond Green is on the same level as DeMar at level 3B. Before some of you start trashing your laptops, I have to say that there is some logic to those placements, even if I ultimately disagree with them.
Fit, fit and more fit
For the sake of argument, let’s say DeMar and Draymond traded places. Would the Warriors and Bulls have been as successful as they were last season? The answer, in my eyes, is a definite no.
On a team packed with elite scorers and shooters, Draymond’s play, defense and chemistry with Steph Curry make him more valuable than another leading shooting guard like DeMar, who is almost useless when the ball is out of his hands.
In fact, I’d go so far as to say that Draymond has been Golden State’s second-most important player during their dynasty. in terms of his style of play. Now, this does not mean that it was his second better player (before Kevin Durant starts angrily tweeting), only his unique style of play has made the biggest contribution to the Warriors’ movement offense outside of Steph.
However, trading him for DeMar on a Chicago team that doesn’t have a pure scorer outside of Lavine definitely wouldn’t end well. Draymond’s lack of individual offensive creation would be further exploited and result in his value being neutralized, which is why pairing him with Steph is a perfect match.
All of that being said, I actually think Draymond should probably be at tier 3C instead of 3B, as efficient shot creation is the most valuable skill in the league, and that’s basically the antithesis of Draymond’s game. However, the point I’m trying to make is that the difference between him and players like DeMar isn’t as big as one might think.
It’s easier to rank players like DeMar much higher because he checks the boxes for what a traditional basketball player “should” do: effortlessly score, put guys on posters, eat wormsshoot nice fadeaways etc…
But when you evaluate them in specific text contexts, their values become much murkier and arguments can be made on both sides.
What does this mean for the Spurs?
The Spurs have good pieces in Keldon, Jakob, Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo. However, neither of them are likely to become much more than an above-average starter (roughly level 4) who can be a good role player in contenders.
This is exactly why PATFO switched to Dejounte and entered the Victor Wembanyama lottery. For the Spurs to become true contenders again, they’ll need at least one player who’s good enough to compete for All-NBA selections (tier 2) and another solid All-Star (tier 3).
Being in a small market like San Antonio means the most realistic path to acquire such talent is through the draft, and they’ll have to pick at the top to maximize their chances of landing the franchise’s next cornerstone.
Fans’ patience will be tested, and basketball can be tough to watch, but it will be worth it if the Spurs land another superstar. And now that the team has finally taken a direction, I like their chances of achieving exactly that.