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At the trade deadline for the 2021 NHL regular season, Washington Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan made a last minute deal with the Detroit Red Wingssending Jakub Vrana fan favorite Richard Panik a 2021 first-round pick and a 2022 second-round pick in exchange for Anthony Mantha.
MacLellan looked to acquire some cost certainty with a top-six forward in Mantha with Vrana heading into restricted free agency with arbitration rights. Vrána also fell out of favor with head coach Peter Laviolette. Additionally, the Capitals sought to get out of Panik’s contract that didn’t work out the way MacLellan and the Capitals had envisioned it when they signed him in free agency in the summer of 2019.
In this post, we will reevaluate the 2021 trade deadline blockbuster. Statistics used in this post courtesy of evolving hockey Y Natural Stats Trick. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly. For more information on the statistical terms used in this publication, please see our NHLAnalytics Glossary.
Rationale behind the trade
Many fans on social media reacted harshly to the package required to acquire Mantha and get rid of Panik’s contract. Mantha had been a bona fide top-six winger for the rebuilding Red Wings and was considered to be the foundation of his young core with Dylan Larkin at the time. Moving a young forward in Vrana was hard enough to swallow, but MacLellan also had to shed two premium draft picks: a 2021 first-round pick and a 2022 second-round pick.
In return, the Capitals freed up future salary-cap space by pulling Panik’s contract, which had become onerous. That contract, with a $2.75 million salary cap that didn’t expire until after the 2022-23 season, could have prevented the Capitals from making other moves, like re-signing franchise mainstays in Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, who were nearing the end of their long-term agreements.
In addition to the financial aspect, it was clear that Vrana’s relationship with the new head of banking, Peter Laviolette, had soured. Laviolette did not trust Vrana late in close games, and sometimes benched him for almost entire periods due to defensive hiccups. In a March 9, 2021 game against the New Jersey Devils, Vrana appeared to stare at Laviolette after scoring the game-winning goal after being benched for much of the game:
Yakub Vrana…. sssss’quick!!!! pic.twitter.com/lxsKAYIBx8
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) March 10, 2021
It seemed that the season of struggles in the relationship between a young player and his coach had come to a head at this point. Vrana, once seen as one of the future solid pieces of the franchise, seemed to be in Laviolette’s doghouse. She had fewer deployments on the ice, less time on the ice, and ultimately it seemed like the relationship was not going to recover.
With the trade to Detroit, the Capitals abandoned the locker room conflict while cementing cost certainty. Mantha’s $5.7 million salary-cap contract doesn’t expire until after the 2023-24 season. The Capitalinos did not want to risk going to arbitration with a dissatisfied Y talented player who contributed solidly to the 2018 Stanley Cup championship race.
MacLellan and the front office had let other players go to arbitration in the past, and it didn’t pan out. The most recent example had been Chandler Stephenson, who played a big role for the Capitals but ended up receiving a higher salary cap in arbitration than the Capitals expected. This was one of the main reasons MacLellan sent him to Las Vegas for a paltry fifth-round pick.
The Capitals, being a veteran-led team, will be adjusted to the salary cap each season. Every dollar counts, and that’s why both Vrana and Panik packed up picks for Mantha. Mantha fits the team’s bulky, physical identity and has scoring skills capable of placing in the top six.
The Red Wings were able to take out a player who probably wouldn’t stay in Detroit much longer for a younger talent more in line with their team’s rebuilding schedule — and two valuable picks. With the first one the Capitals acquired, they were able to bag picks to move up the draft and take on their potential goalie of the future in Sebastian Cossa.
Ultimately, time will tell if the move was the right one, but let’s take a look at Mantha and Vrana’s performances (with a bit of Panik) to understand the benefits of the trade.
Offensive Production and Possession
Arguably the biggest statistical component I’d look for in a top-six winger is their production on the ice. Let’s take a look at their sixty-minute scoring rates during the five-on-five game:
In the last two seasons, Vrana has surpassed Mantha in terms of production rates when normalized for sixty minutes of play. The flip side of that is that Vrana had skated fewer games and ultimately fewer minutes on the ice, which will skew the data.
In 26 games last season with the Red Wings, Vrana scored 13 goals, had 6 assists for a total of 19 points. Mantha had 9 goals, 14 assists for 23 points in 37 games last year, marred by a gruesome shoulder injury suffered earlier in the season in a contest against the Panthers.
Now, let’s take a look at his possession on the ice and goal percentages:
Over the past two seasons, Mantha have had very solid possession numbers, exceeding the 50% threshold for shot attempts from Corsi For and Fenwick For. Vrana struggled in this regard, where she was on the ice for more shot attempts than he attempted. This is to be expected, though, as Vrana went from a playoff-caliber team in Washington to a rebuilding team in Detroit. Mantha had solid CF and FF percentages in Detroit prior to his last season there, so Mantha continued his trend of solid possession play.
Vrana’s value in GF% is a determining factor for a large part of his overall value as a striker. He drives offensive production and therefore sees a higher percentage of goals scored than against. On the other hand, Vrana struggles defensively, so the quality of the opportunities he’s on the ice against tips the scales towards the sub-50% threshold we see here.
Targets above replacement value
Now that we’ve looked at production, let’s take a look at these players’ Above Replacement Target Values ​​(GAR), which rate their value above a replacement level (average) player. First, we’ll look at your true GAR value, then we’ll look at your expected GAR value (xGAR).
These values ​​confirm what we know about these players on the ice. Vrana’s value is derived primarily (almost solely) from his uniform strength offensive ability, but his defensive performance reduces his overall value.
For Mantha, he’s solid offensively even at strength, but is above replacement level value defensively, ultimately raising his total GAR value slightly above Vrana’s. I included Panik’s values ​​here to show why the Capitals had to dump him and pay Detroit picks to accept his contract.
Here are their xGAR figures:
Vrana’s xGAR numbers offensively are much higher than his actual GAR value, because he generates a lot of expected goals and chances with his overall offensive ability in a relatively short amount of time. That adds to his value, but we also see that he’s still a below-replacement-level player defensively. Mantha has a solid 11.9 xGAR, but he doesn’t exactly surprise anyone with any of his GAR numbers.
conclusion
Switching to Vrana from DC was a tough pill for most fans to swallow. As a key part of the team’s only Cup win and the pinnacle of the Ovechkin era, switching to Vrana came as a shock. Unfortunately, with Vrana potentially entering restricted free agency with arbitration rights, the Capitals looked for cost certainty and a top-six player who fit the mold and identity of the team.
Mantha fit that mold and had several years of team control left on his contract. Mantha added a bit more defensive stability with slightly less offensive production, but with the other forwards on this team who can produce offensively, it seemed like a worthwhile move at the time. Time will tell if it is an exchange that the Capitalinos end up regretting.
By Justin Truell