That famous Timofey Mozgov contract from six years ago caught even Mozgov off guard.
For those who haven’t memorized old markets for RPGs, here’s a refresher:
the Los Angeles Lakers He began the 2016 offseason by handing Mozgov, a low-scoring big man, a four-year, $64 million deal. The contract immediately became the talk of the basketball world. Thanks to a lucrative new television deal, the salary cap had increased by more than 30 percent that summer, the largest increase in a single season in NBA history. Everybody who was somebody had salary-cap space. But $16 million a year for a future second? That seemed like an outlier.
Salaries go up but no one anticipated… this. Not even Mozgov thought that he would earn so much. He was so excited about tripling his income that he drove from Miami to Orlando that day just to take his agent out for a celebratory dinner.
But outliers are only outliers if they are recognized as such by all parties. Otherwise, they can quickly become the norm. And that was what happened in the summer of 2016.
Agents use player contracts similar to those of their clients as points of comparison when negotiating with teams, and because Mozgov signed so quickly, right after the start of free agency at 12:01 a.m., his contract just coined became a staple deal for many around the NBA. Sure, teams might scream about how a backup center shouldn’t make that much money, but the entire league had an influx of cap space and felt pressure to use it.
In the meantime. agents could point to the Lakers’ new center as justification for why he, too, should be paid to his backup big man.
It didn’t take long for the Mozgov deal to become basic.
That off season Bismack Biyombo received $72 million over four years from the orlando magic. Dwight Howard, who was viewed a little more favorably at the time, signed for $71 million over three years with the atlanta falcons. Ian Mahinmi got a Mozgovian contract from the washington wizards: four years, $64 million. Later in the fall, Gorgui Dieng signed an extension with the minnesota timber wolves for, you guessed it, $64 million over four years.
Each team ended up lamenting each signing. But that is not the point. The Mozgov contract was an outlier until it wasn’t.
So what does Timofey Mozgov, who hasn’t played an NBA game in four years, have to do with the New York Knicks or the NBA today?
The same dynamic that took over the league after his signing is taking place right now but in the transfer market. A gigantic comeback for Rudy Goberto has reset the baseline for someone like the Knicks pinning donovan mitchelland now the NBA is paralyzed.
For years, teams were hesitant to trade unprotected first-rounders for players who weren’t transformative themselves, but times have changed.
The Atlanta Hawks gave the San Antonio Spurs two unprotected first-round picks for All-Star Dejounte Murraywhich meant the Minnesota Timberwolves had to give the utah jazz Three unprotected firsts for Gobert, which means the Jazz want even more for a three-time All-Star and offensive center, Mitchell, which means the Brooklyn networks wants all your draft picks, all your good players, your Hulu login information, and your firstborn son for Kevin Durant.
The biggest sign of an unbalanced transaction in any trade, from the NBA to finance and anything in between, is one that triggers such massive inflation that it cripples the entire market. That seems to be what’s happening in this post-Gobert era.
Eventually, there is a point of diminishing returns, a time when the package this ladder dictates for a star is objectively absurd. That’s when the market collapses in on itself. The league may be at that point now. If not, you’re on the brink. Durant is arguably the best player in the world, but it’s not worth giving up everything you have for him because you end up with Durant and nothing, and what does that give you?
Meanwhile, the Knicks are in the thick of it. The Jazz want to strip them bare in a Mitchell trade. So far, New York is unwilling to dismantle its future.
In a normal offseason, maybe an unrestricted free agent stays that late into the summer. This has been anything but normal. And it’s hurting more than just the Knicks, Mitchell and the rest of their suitors.
Several teams are waiting for what can happen with Durant. They won’t make a move until they know they can no longer acquire it. Kyrie Irving‘s future remains in limbo because of it.
An organization like the Indiana Pacers could be waiting for a russell westbrook move in as they have reportedly discussed the possibility of acquiring it. But they may want the market to open up again before doing so, since miles turner a deal could come and they may not want to send Turner to Los Angeles because for all they know a Durant suitor could offer more than they could get for Turner today if that suitor knew he no longer had a chance at a former MVP.
Reception leaders are people too. Using Gobert’s return as leverage doesn’t have to be just a negotiating ploy. Sometimes strategies like that are PR too. Teams don’t exactly expect the public to scream about how a better player landed less in a trade than an inferior one.
Even Mozgov didn’t enter free agency six years ago thinking he’d make that much. And as far as we know, the Jazz did not anticipate receiving three unprotected first-rounders, another top-five protégé, a 21-year-old who just entered the first round less than a month earlier and a first-round trade. . along with several helpful rotation players for Gobert. But it happened. And now, Utah has priced its Mitchell price as if the Gobert package weren’t an outlier. The Nets have done the same thing with Durant.
It doesn’t have to stay that way forever. Mitchell’s situation could become untenable in Utah, which could mean the Jazz lower their starting price. They might worry that Mitchell will win them too many fall games, which could cost them lottery night, and decide to trade him before the season starts no matter what. The Knicks could feel the pressure of a three-time All-Star staring them in the face and give in, too.
Eventually, somehow, the transaction wire will work again. But for now, there has been a Mozgovification of the commercial market, and it’s a wonder how long this lasts.
(Donovan Mitchell photo above: Wendell Cruz/USA Today)