Matthew Tkachuk would solve a lot of problems for the islanders. But general manager Lou Lamoriello doesn’t seem likely he’ll trade for the Flames star, mainly because it’s hard to see how he could put together a competitive offer and keep his team under the salary cap.
Tkachuk is expected to be traded sometime before Aug. 11 after reports indicated he will not sign a long-term extension in Calgary. Otherwise, he will go to arbitration with the Flames, which could hinder any team’s ability to sign him to an extension once he is traded.
The Islanders already lost a star Calgary winger from Tkachuk’s own line this summer, when Johnny Gaudreau chose the Blue Jackets. Lamoriello has said he would like to make a trade to improve the forward group. Tkachuk, who had a career season in 2021-22 with 104 points (42 goals and 62 assists), would certainly do that.
The problem for the Islanders is twofold: what can they offer and how will they be limited by the salary cap.
First, unless there’s an appetite for one of the Islanders’ core players, it seems likely that Calgary GM Brad Treliving could get a better deal elsewhere. Although all are available at the right price, Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Alexander Romanov, Ilya Sorokin and Noah Dobson seem almost untouchable unless Barzal has no interest in a long-term extension once. his current contract ends in 2023. There’s no indication that’s the case, and Barzal said on the day of the breakup that he’d like to remain on Long Island for the foreseeable future.
The Blues appear to be at the front of the line for Tkachuk, whose father, Keith, played nine years in St. Louis. General manager Doug Armstrong can offer a combination of Jordan Kyrou, Vladimir Tarasenko, the top players from a prospect pool that includes three recent first-round picks and the team’s picks in the next three drafts.
If Lamoriello offers Anthony Beauvillier, Oliver Wahlstrom and some combination of prospects and future picks, it’s hard to see how he would be better. Kyrou’s 75 points in 2021-22 was more than Beauvillier (34) and Wahlstrom (24) had combined. Perhaps someone in Calgary’s front office thinks Wahlstrom is a superstar in waiting. Do not flatter yourself.
If Tkachuk wants to play in St. Louis, it would be more difficult for the Islanders. And it doesn’t help that the Islanders haven’t made a first-round pick since 2019, limiting their prospect pool and making it harder to part with their 2023 first-round pick.
Then there is the problem of the salary cap. The Islanders still need to sign Dobson, Romanov and Kieffer Bellows to extensions that will likely take up most of their current $11.1 million cap space. Barzal is also in line for a raise when his contract is up. Tkachuk figures to make more of his $9 million qualifying offer when an extension is finally signed. This mathematical problem has no obvious answer for the islanders.
It would probably require getting rid of Josh Bailey or Semyon Varlamov in addition to Beauvillier. Bailey is a career islander and, after the Max Pacioretty deal, it’s hard to see how Lamoriello could move his $5 million salary without giving up another asset. Lamoriello also reiterated in the draft that he has no interest in trading Varlamov. Maybe that was a bluff. Again, don’t flatter yourself.
Most likely, the islanders are in the same place with Tkachuk as they are with Gaudreau: outside looking in.