A lot has happened since avalanche raised the Stanley Cup on June 26. There have been 352 contracts signed in the NHLand 25 trades, excluding draft-day pick trades, with many of them reshaping the landscape for the 2022-23 season.
Hart Trophy Candidate johnny gaudreau shocked the hockey world by registering Colonthat started a chain reaction that landed Matthew Tkachuk in florida and jonathan huberdeau – who finished just behind Gaudreau for the Hart – in Calgary. The goalkeepers changed seats like a game of musical chairs, and nearly a third of the league has a new coach heading into this season. There are still some changes to come (cough, cough… Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg), but most of the dust has settled on an NHL offseason that was wilder than most.
Now that we have a better picture of what each team will look like heading into the upcoming season, it’s time to ask: Which teams made or hurt their championship aspirations the most this summer? To quantify that, we’ve compared each team’s Stanley Cup odds, courtesy of Bet MGM, from June 26 to now. Obviously, this isn’t a perfect representation of which teams got better or worse, but it is a look at how punters and the betting public view each club’s offseason maneuvering.
Because every dollar on the money line is not equal, we’ll use “implied odds” for each team, which converts their odds to a percentage. For example, the Colorado Avalanche has the best odds to win the 2022-23 Cup at +425, which translates to a 19.5 percent chance. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks they have the worst odds at +50,000, which translates to a 0.2 percent chance.
Using this method accounts for the larger line move of teams with unlikely odds. A team like Columbus going from +10,000 to +8,000 is a 1,000-point change in odds, but really, it only improves their implied Cup winning percentage from 0.99 to 1.23 percent. Meanwhile, Colorado improved from +450 to +425. That’s only a 25-point change in odds, but the Avalanche’s implied Cup winning percentage went from 18.18 to 19.05 percent, a much larger increase than for Columbus.
Over the last month, there were nine teams that improved their odds, 11 that saw their odds stay exactly the same. The full chart is at the bottom. First, we’ll examine the top five at each end of the spectrum, starting with those whose odds improved the most.
1. florida panthers
Odds June 26: +1,000 (9.09%)
Current odds: +900 (10.00%)
Percent Change: 0.91%
High-profile moves probably influence the betting market more than they should, and this could be a perfect example. The Panthers entered the offseason with the fourth-best odds to win next year’s Cup and have done more to improve their chances than any other NHL team based on odds.
It’s a little strange to see Florida at the top of this list considering they lost their leading scorer in Huberdeau and several key pieces up front. claude giroux Y masons marchand advocates mackenzie weegar Y Ben Chiarot this summer. The Panthers obviously added another star in Tkachuk, as well as some forwards in cousins of nick Y white colinbut to say that they have had the best off-season is an exaggeration.
Nothing fuels future bets in the summer more than a blockbuster acquisition, and Tkachuk is definitely that.
2. Colorado Avalanche
Odds June 26: +450 (18.18%)
Current odds: +425 (19.05%)
Percent change: 0.87%
The improvement in Colorado’s odds this summer wasn’t due to actual roster improvements. Colorado weakened at the net, losing darcy kumper a Washington and quickly replacing it with Alexander Georgiev. He also lost forwards Nicholas Aube-Kubel Y Andre Burakovsky to free agency, and he could still lose Kadri.
There is a chance punters are betting on the young Colorado stars taking their game to another level, but this change in odds is due more to the lack of improvement from the teams around the Avalanche. The top three teams entering the offseason improved their odds despite making little to no improvement. That suggests no team below them made enough improvements to catch them, causing the market to focus more on the favourites.
3. Ottawa Senators
Odds June 26: +8,000 (1.23%)
Current odds: +5,000 (1.96%)
Percent change: 0.73%
What a summer it has been for Senators. General manager Pierre Dorion added two impact players in Alex De Brincat and Giroux, and potentially upgraded his goal with a cheaper starting option. The trade for DeBrincat alone would have made this a winning offseason for the Senators, adding the 24-year-old who is coming off an impressive 41-goal season for just a handful of draft picks. Signing the local veteran in Giroux could turn out to be an excellent free agency move, and change matt murray by Cam Talbot in the net should improve Ottawa’s goal. Talbot has surpassed Murray in each of the past three years in above-average save percentage and goals saved, but will only have a salary cap of $3.6 million.
Those moves resulted in a 0.73 percent change in the odds for Ottawa, improving from 80-1 to win it all at 50-1. The Senators are still obviously a long shot, but now have the fifth-best odds of winning the Division. Atlantic despite finishing top alone Montreal in 2021-22.
Four. the toronto maple leaves
Odds June 26: +850 (10.53%)
Current odds: +800 (11.11%)
Percent Change: 0.58%
Toronto has had a busy offseason, losing several roster contributors last year while adding two new goalies and some new depth pieces via free agency. Perhaps this change in odds is due to confidence that Matt Murray will return to his 2016 form, or maybe oddsmakers like the Leafs’ hidden moves, like signing Aube-Kubel and Jarnkrok Street. Either way, Toronto remains among the favorites for next season.
5. new york rangers
Odds June 26: +2,000 (4.76%)
Current odds: +1,800 (5.26%)
Percent change: 0.50%
Rangers lost forwards ryan strome Y Andrew Copp through free agency, but replaced them by trading them for Vicente Trocheck Carolina will reconnect with Gerard Gallant, who coached him through several of the best offensive seasons of his career in Florida.
The betting public’s support for the Rangers probably has more to do with developing their young talent than actual offseason acquisitions. Looking at adam fox, Philip Quitil, alexis lafreniere, K’Andre Miller, kaapo kakko Y Ryan Lindgren (all under 24) playing as well as they did in the postseason paints a bright future in New York.
Vincent Trocheck. (Danny Savage/USA Today)
Now, the five teams that hurt their 2022-23 Cup odds the most this summer:
1. calgary flames
Odds June 26: +1,800 (5.26%)
Current odds: +2,200 (4.35%)
Percent change: -0.91%
General manager Brad Treliving did an incredible job securing the return he did for Tkachuk, considering the circumstances, but there’s no denying the Flames are in a worse situation after losing both of their leading scorers a year ago.
Tkachuk and Gaudreau combined for 82 goals in 2021-22, more than 28 per cent of the team’s total. Even after they acquired Huberdeau and Weegar, it’s easy to see why the betting market is bearish on the Flames.
two. tampa bay lightning
Odds June 26: +900 (10.00%)
Current odds: +1,000 (9.09%)
Percent change: -0.91%
The Lightning are still projected to contend for another Cup, but their salary-cap issues are slowly undermining their stacked roster. GM Julien BriseBois did well to block mikhail sergachev, antonio cirelli Y Erik Cernak to long-term deals, but they lost two props in the locker room to get it done. With ryan macdonagh Y Palate of Ondrej both walking out the door, Tampa Bay has questions to answer.
Even with the 0.91 percent slip, the Lightning still have the fourth-best odds of winning it all in 2022-23.
3. philadelphia flyers
Odds June 26: +6,600 (1.49%)
Current odds: +15,000 (0.66%)
Percent change: -0.91%
Entering the offseason, the Flyers were near the middle of the pack in terms of odds of winning the 2022-23 Cup (23rd in the league at 66-1). After negotiating for tony deangelosigning a $10 million deal and missing out on the hometown hero (Gaudreau), the Flyers’ odds have dropped to sixth-worst in the NHL.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
Odds June 26: +10,000 (0.99%)
Current odds: +50,000 (0.20%)
Percent change: -0.79%
The Blackhawks entered the offseason as 100-to-1 long shots and still managed to get demonstrably worse. The list of players Chicago lost goes on and on. Of Brincat and kirby dach they’re the big two, but the Blackhawks also said goodbye to deep forwards dylan strome Y Dominic Kubalikand defender Calvin de Haan.
A month ago, the Blackhaws had the fourth-worst odds. Now they’re tied with the coyotes for the worst odds in the NHL of 500 to 1.
5. St. Louis Blues
Odds June 26: +2,200 (4.35%)
Current odds: +2,500 (3.85%)
Percent Change: -0.50%
It’s been a quiet offseason in St. Louis. The Blues saw one of their top scorers (David Perron) and their number 1 goalkeeper for most of last season (ville husso) went out the door, but didn’t add much to replace them. It’s easy to see why the Blues’ odds have dwindled over the last month, especially now that they’re out of the Tkachuk draw.
Here’s how the odds changed for each team in the league over the last month:
|
Equipment |
6/26 |
Current |
Change |
|---|---|---|---|
|
9.09% |
10.00% |
0.91% |
|
|
18.18% |
19.05% |
0.87% |
|
|
1.23% |
1.96% |
0.73% |
|
|
10.53% |
11.11% |
0.58% |
|
 new york rangers |
4.76% |
5.26% |
0.50% |
|
1.96% |
2.44% |
0.48% |
|
|
2.44% |
2.78% |
0.34% |
|
|
1.23% |
1.49% |
0.26% |
|
|
0.99% |
1.23% |
0.24% |
|
|
7.69% |
7.69% |
0% |
|
|
6.67% |
6.67% |
0% |
|
|
5.88% |
5.88% |
0% |
|
|
5.26% |
5.26% |
0% |
|
|
4.76% |
4.76% |
0% |
|
 New York Islanders |
3.23% |
3.23% |
0% |
|
2.78% |
2.78% |
0% |
|
|
2.44% |
2.44% |
0% |
|
|
1.96% |
1.96% |
0% |
|
|
1.96% |
1.96% |
0% |
|
|
0.66% |
0.66% |
0% |
|
|
0.20% |
0.20% |
0% |
|
|
0.79% |
0.66% |
-0.13% |
|
|
1.23% |
0.99% |
-0.24% |
|
|
1.49% |
1.23% |
-0.26% |
|
|
1.49% |
1.23% |
-0.26% |
|
|
0.99% |
0.66% |
-0.33% |
|
|
3.85% |
3.45% |
-0.40% |
|
|
4.35% |
3.85% |
-0.50% |
|
|
0.99% |
0.20% |
-0.79% |
|
|
1.49% |
0.66% |
-0.83% |
|
|
10.00% |
9.09% |
-0.91% |
|
|
5.26% |
4.35% |
-0.91% |
(Top photo by Auston Matthews, morgan rielly Y mitch marner: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)