Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija quietly give Wizards hope

by

Depending on your mood, the 2022-23 campaign could look like another dull year for the Washington Wizards.

Last season, Washington faded to a 35-47 record after starting 10-3 and finishing under .500 for the fourth straight season. The Wizards have finally returned to a state of mediocrity, defining a franchise that has surpassed 45 wins only twice since 1978-79.

So far, the team hasn’t made a serious move to climb out of the bottom rungs of the Eastern Conference. In the 2022 NBA Draft, the Wizards selected Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis No. 10 overall to provide a long-term solution on the perimeter. They also made a minor exchange. I liked that added Monte Morris and Will Barton to the mix, and they’re reportedly in Donovan Mitchell’s draw at some level according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Unless a Mitchell trade materializes, though, we’ve likely already seen the major moves from Washington. This means the franchise is relying on second-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. and a young core to keep pace in the ever-improving East.

Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija did not set the world on fire in 2021-22. That said, the former No. 9 draft picks are two of the leaders in Washington’s prospect pool, and despite rough seasons, they showed the small jumps fans should expect.

Hachimura played just 42 games last season and didn’t make his season debut until January 9 after a mysterious absence off the pitch. While we can piece together that it was due to personal reasons, Hachimura never detailed the issues and the Wizards respected his privacy. Ultimately, the fact that he felt comfortable enough to play again is a win for Hachimura, and we can hope that he is in a better and happier place in his life.

That absence puts Hachimura’s shortened season in some context. He managed a career-low 22.5 minutes per game and started just 13 contests, with Washington going 16-26 in his appearances. As winter turned to spring (and the Wizards fell out of contention), his playing time increased to 30.5 minutes per game in six April matchups.

In his short season, Hachimura gave us a revelation in the form of a blistering 44.7% clip from three-point range, nearly a 12% jump from 2020-21.

Those shots, frankly, weren’t difficult. Hachimura was often left alone in transition to catch up, and he rarely faced hard shutdowns from defenders. They challenged him to a threesome, and Hachimura did. Almost all of his long range stopped; 117 of his 123 attempts did not require a dribble. But Hachimura also seemed confident to shoot. He didn’t need to collect himself or fake a jab.

Hachimura was able to knock down some lopsided shots where he had to run. He also appeared in rare two-man action with guys like Avdija (see the third clip).

It’s absolutely fair to question whether Hachimura’s efficiency is repeatable. Free throw percentage can be another indicator of shooting potential, and he shot just 69.7% from the charity streak in 2021-22. I wouldn’t expect another year in the mid-40s from a distance, but if Hachimura hovers around the top 30, that’s significant for his offensive impact.

When attacking a close, Hachimura likes to stop for the long two-point shot. It’s an overall undesirable shot that he didn’t play well with last season (35%, per Glass Cleanup), and it’s a poor way to use his driving power.

Hachimura finished 75% of his attempts at the rim last season, ranking in the 98th percentile among forwards. A solid portion of those marks were due to transitional cuts and finishes, but approximately 46% received no assistance.

Hachimura is not a sprinter or a jumper; he makes up for it with a stoic frame and impressive poise. Hachimura can rush to the rim and simply ignore opposing defenders, and has even shown the ability to finish high, as exemplified in the attack against Christian Wood earlier. He can beat slow changeups or drop the big leaguers and intimidate smaller mismatches.

This should be the roadmap for Hachimura right now. If he can achieve a consistent, menacing perimeter presence and combine that with an imposing driving game, he’ll be a weapon as a complementary scorer who can break down defenses. Hachimura offers little as a passer, but fortunately he has a prospective partner who can fill the gap.

Avdija played all 82 games in his second season and, although he only started eight times, he had a more entrenched role in the Wizards’ rotation. His fit is almost a polar opposite of his 9th pick in Hachimura.

Avdija’s scoring numbers and assist rates don’t jump off the page, but he scored extremely well in the BBall Index’s Passing Versatility (99th percentile) and Quality of Passing Creation (92nd percentile) metrics. I’d like to focus on the first one, which is aimed at diagnosing NBA players who have different levels of passing in their arsenal.

Here’s a featured clip packed with different passing readings of Avdija this season. He’s analyzing the pick-and-roll, throwing passes to the weak side, dodging screens and kicking, or driving and unloading. The vision, creativity and skill are evident. Avdija sometimes gets too ambitious, leading to turnovers, but for a young player, that’s not a problem as he continues to acclimate to the league.

And playmaking potential isn’t even Avdija’s signature ability right now. As Stephen Cagan (aka NBA University) says, Avdija is a king of KBIF:

Avdija is 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds with a strong base and quick feet and hips. He spent more than 20% of the time protecting players at the top level of BBall Index usage. Avdija scored in the 88th percentile for the database’s matchmaking difficulty metric, the 98th percentile in positional versatility, and the 94th percentile in role versatility. Washington placed a ton of responsibility on the shoulders of a second-year forward and, for the most part, Avdija was up to the task. He’s also one of the best defensive rebounders in the league at his position.

Leave a Comment