Normally, for my analysis and trend pieces, I try to pick one theme to tie it all together. That’s going out the window this time, because just like my summer schedule in trying to balance work and social commitments (who needs to sleep in their own bed anyway?), I just have random mixed thoughts and some Forest ranger Questions and answers in different directions about the Rangers.
With that said, let’s start with the roster as a whole from the standpoint of expected and projected goals above replacement by 60 (as this is simplistic for a player and team both in and out of season) through Evolving Hockey:
I chose the playoff lineup and all the “options” available. seeing as the Rangers put together a great run with this setup (however, the numbers are from the regular season, because the playoff sample size isn’t big enough for GAR). Player figures for any deadline are with the Rangers only. Finally, as a reminder, we use xGAR/60 (expected GAR times 60) because expected numbers are normalized for hot/cold shots and rates per 60 are adjusted for TOI compared to just using GAR totals.
frank vatrano, Andrew CoppY justin braun skip. The Rangers had the space and chris drury he did relatively well, especially considering the prices he paid for the trio. Of the regulars who were not expected to be true leaders, K’Andre Miller, Alexis Lafreniere and kaapo kakko pop to some extent, and of course we want more of that. The rest is a mix of two categories: you need more for most of the next year (Artemiy Panarin, Philip Quitil) and just stop playing them (almost all deep forwards, including Ryan ReavesY Libor Hajek of course).
For starters, and who knows how intentional that was due to cap challenges, Drury eliminated some of the shallow depth options, especially with forwards. The risk here is that he fills up with a lot of unknowns, from Kravtsov on down, but frankly, he’d rather see a revolving door of younger Hartford players who can skate with energy for the fourth row than the well-known league veteran. minimal. (I’m sure there will be a PTO or two in September).
I will not debate Reaves v. Hunt longer; if you can’t see that Hunt and some good skating would help the fourth row more after the playoffs, that’s your prerogative. Goodrow-Carpenter-Hunt would be a great fourth line to try.
Consistent projections across the board just come with this space. For players with established backgrounds, the model naturally takes them to a place close to a weighted average of their later years. This is both good and bad news for the Rangers. The odds of Kreider being as good as he was last year aren’t high, but the same can be said for Panarin as I kind of hope he’ll be better next season (although this was always the risk with him: when will the decline occur? start and stay?).
That said: check out Chytil. Evolving Hockey believes he will be the fifth-best player in NYR by GAR/60, which would be a huge step forward and likely spell the end of his Rangers career given what they would pay him.
Finally, a comment about Trocheck. In general, although the term is difficult to understand, it is a proven game booster and defensive improvement of ryan strome. As long as the Rangers get 3-4 good seasons out of him, it might end up being worth figuring out how to get rid of him when the decline hits.
On defense, Miller finally overcomes Ryan Lindgren in terms of impact (and therefore should be recognized as such when paired with adam fox). For depth, it will be interesting if Gerard Gallant can’t help it and still gives Tinordi or Hajek a wink. Schneider’s playoffs probably locked him into third place, which is fine. However, I think Jones and Lundkvist should definitely get a good shot once again.
So are the Rangers better? I give it a probably. I think a lot of the young players made good steps forward and that should continue in theory, but it’s the unknown (or to some extent the known bad) that doesn’t make it a yes. Will Kravtsov really get a chance and then, if so, will he succeed? Is Goodrow playing too high up the lineup again given his lack of ability to generate offense (he’s the best in 4L)? Will the young defense be able to earn Gallant’s “trust”? Time will tell.
Ranger Q&A
To wrap this up, I cheekily collaborated with some random Twitter queries for some Ranger Q&A:
Both. I think Nils will get another 20+ GP race if Schneider stumbles out of the gate. Also, don’t be afraid to play one of those three on the spur of the moment to find the best pair… in theory, everyone can handle the puck, so let them do it.
- Odds of seeing Chytil at 2C and why is it 100%? (via matt cat)
First of all, I just hope our tall, fresh Czech Pilsner playoff star is still on the roster when training camp rolls around. Beyond that, everyone should know by now that I’m experimenting. I cringe at the thought of the boys line being 3L to start the year; in any case, convert them to the 2L and let Trocheck improve the 3L. There are plenty of other worthy combos that I’m sure will be mentioned beyond that simple idea (which was the same idea with Strome, but Trocheck is better).
- Should NYR go to Miller-Fox & Lindgren-Trouba? (via kreiderfor50)
Every time someone brings up this topic, I’m bound to remind everyone that the Rangers could try these two seemingly cool pairs of plugins, and if it doesn’t work, they can come back! Yeah, give this run and I also want to point out that Miller-Fox was the only Rangers pairing with >30 TOI in the playoffs to have an expected goal % above 50 (5v5, SVA, via EH). It makes you think…
- Will Kravtsov return and how does he fit into future plans? (via domin0ch)
Instead of blind loyalty to a veteran for once, I just want to see blind loyalty to a younger player who has proven himself in the second best league in the world. Beyond that, who knows.
Yes. However, I want to take this opportunity to point out (so people don’t get mad, which they will anyway) that the preseason models still aren’t going to like NYR because of how they played most of the year, they will! which one is good! Well not good, for a good 40-50 games they didn’t play well and Igor was so good. But if they can bottle up that post-deadline game, their 5v5 game results will likely be a combination of how/if the youngsters step up, how the lanes fit with Trocheck, and whether Gallant can stay away from bad options from depth (so basically the same as last year).
Alright, that’s enough for now. Wow, a complete article with only two charts…it really is the worst part of the sports calendar of the year.