The North American hard court swing is an opportunity after a brief stint on clay after Wimbledon. There are three majors on the books, with Rafael Nadal winning the 2022 Australian Open and French Open to break the record with 22 major titles won. Former World No. 1 Novak Djokovic won his seventh Wimbledon title to sit a major title behind Nadal. That leaves the fourth ATP major of the year, the US Open, on deck at the end of August.
The transition from clay to grass and back to hard court creates an interesting dynamic on the circuit, which punters could benefit from. Here’s what you need to know to prepare for the North American hard court tour leading up to the US Open in New York.
Early odds to win US Open 2022
Novak Djokovic +160
Daniil Medvedev +240
Carlos Alcaraz +335
Rafael Nadal +550
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1000
The surface
Clay brings volatility due to the inconsistency of the surface. Players who excel on red clay have good physical and mental stamina, as rallies are long and exhausting. Grass is all about great serves and quick points. Those who can serve and volley or play well at net usually have a good season on grass. The action returns to the hard court, where the pool of players who can win opens up. Those who play well from the baseline will compete, and the ATP has a lot of baseline players today.
The return of the Russians
Wimbledon banned this group of players from participating in the third major of the year, leaving Daniil Medvedev (No. 1), Andrey Rublev (No. 8), Karen Khachanov (No. 26), Aslan Karatsev (No. 37) and Ilya Ivashka (No. 53) offside. Most have made an appearance during the clay break, with the exception of Medvedev. That brings me to the top of my list of players to watch in the events leading up to the US Open.
Daniel Medvedev
It’s easy to forget Medvedev because it feels like it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him. Clay isn’t particularly the best surface of his, but he spent most of the season on clay recovering from injury anyway. He then had a couple of deep runs on grass, losing back-to-back finals at the Libema Open and the Halle Open. Meddy has 13 tour titles, six won outdoors, including the 2018 Winston-Salem Open, 2019 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati, 2021 ATP Masters 1000 Canada and, of course, the 2021 US Open, where he defeated Djokovic in straight sets. runs in the final. .
That makes four of his six outdoor hard court titles won during the latter part of the year. Djokovic is the best returner in the world, but you could definitely put Medvedev right next to him. The length and wingspan of it make it really hard to get anything through it. My only gripe is that Medvedev lacks the variety I’d expect to see from someone who holds the World No. 1 title, but in what he’s good at, the bottom line, he’s really good. This is Medvedev’s moment to shine.
taylor fritz
I’m still waiting for that breakthrough. She is coming. The 24-year-old American is very close to achieving that great victory. I’m not talking about beating an injured Nadal in the Indian Wells final, I’m talking about breaking that big moment in a major. Could this be the season it happens? Fritz pushed Djokovic to five sets in the 2021 Australian Open third round, pushed Tsitsipas to five sets in the 2022 Australian Open fourth round and nearly eliminated Nadal losing in a fifth-set tiebreak in the quarters. Wimbledon final last month.
Fritz has the weapons to excel not only in these previous events but also in New York. He has the serve, power shots on both the forehand and backhand, and now he is gaining the confidence to compete in these marquee matchups. Fritz doesn’t have a good record, 16-16 in the five US Open preliminary events, but he is evolving. His best record is in Los Cabos, a 9-4 win/loss record that he could perhaps extend.
Dominic Thiem
Has Thiem returned? It’s been a rough couple of years for the 2020 US Open champion. The Austrian, who peaked as world No. 3 in the rankings from March 2020 to February 2021, has since dropped to No. 352 and is currently at No. 274. Why? Surgery for a wrist injury. After winning the US Open 2020, Thiem made one of the best comebacks as he defeated Nick Kyrgios in five sets of the third round of the Australian Open 2021 after losing two sets to love. He always marked that game as the one that broke it. Thiem went 5-7 afterward, playing his final game of the year in June 2021 and not returning to the tour until April 2022.
Including last year, Thiem was on a 10-match losing streak, but has now won six of his last eight matches since the beginning of July. The one-handed backhand is still a beautiful thing and his powerful forehand is coming back full force from him. What Thiem needed was confidence and it looks like he’s finding it just in time for a new hard court season. It’s unclear what events he’ll play before the next Major, but backing him is something to consider again as he only gets stronger, more confident and fitter with each match.
Carlos Alcaraz
How far can Spanish go? We’re about to find out. Alcaraz is sixth in the ranking and is still only 19 years old. At time of writing, Charlie Brown is 38-5 in 2022, is 13-0 in ATP 500 events, has reached the quarterfinals in seven events, the semifinals in six, and has won four titles. He has played in only 10 tournaments. It was the 2021 US Open where he began to show glimpses of his future progression, defeating Tsitsipas in a fifth-set tiebreak in the third round. He followed that up with another five-set victory over Peter Gojowczyk, but when he reached the quarterfinals, he didn’t have the health to continue and retired early in the second set against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
He certainly has health and fitness now. It will be interesting to see what Alcaraz can produce the rest of the year. He has all the weapons to compete for a big title: the cut, the drop shot, the kick serve, the power shots, the sense of the court. And now he has the experience to run deep in tournaments and win.