Mandel: TV numbers show Pac-12 could be healthier than we think (for now)

On the heels of the Oklahoma and Texas bombing of the SEC last summer, conducted a frantic research project examining the TV value of the eight Big 12 schools left behind. At the time, there was speculation that the Pac-12 or another Power 5 conference would launch and invite several of those schools. I quickly realized that was not going to happen, seeing how bad programs like oklahoma state Y Baylor rate in the Nielsen ratings when not facing the before or the Long horns.

A year later, the Pac-12 finds itself in much the same situation after The shocking departures from USC and UCLA for the Big Ten. Considering that the Big 12 has since stabilized with the addition of BYU, Cincinnati, UCF Y houstonnow there are rumors that league is trying to steal a combination of the remaining Pac-12 programs.

With the Pac-12 knee-deep in a 30-day negotiating window with ESPN and Fox for their next deal, it was a no-brainer for me to conduct a similar study of the television performances of the remaining 10 Pac-12 schools. Are those schools worth more, less, or about the same as the eight remnants of the Big 12? Do the data support the prevailing notion that Oregon Y Washington What are the particularly valuable brands?

My only regret about the Big 12 story is that it only looked at data from two seasons (2018 and 2019). That is too small a sample size. Fortunately, my colleague Andy Staples (with the help of sports media watchSince then, it has compiled a massive database of every Nielsen-rated game from the regular season since 2015 (excluding the statistically worthless 2020 season). This allowed me to not only dig into the Pac-12, but also revise and update the Big 12 for apples-to-apples comparisons.

(I did not include BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston in the Big 12 sample, as they were not members of the Big 12 at the time, and in the case of the latter three, they were largely facing the Group of 5 and not to Power 5 opponents. )

Home games from both conferences on ABC, Fox, ESPN, ESPN2, FS1 and ESPNU were included. Unfortunately, no data is available for the Pac-12 Network, Longhorn Network, or ESPN+, which began airing Big 12 games in 2019. But it’s still a relatively similar amount of inventory: After removing games from departing members, about 52 per year of the Big 12 and 48 of the Pac-12.

Some key takeaways…

Losing USC Y University of California at Los Angeles It’s not as catastrophic as losing Oklahoma and Texas.

It’s still absolutely gut-wrenching, but neither USC nor UCLA have been as big of an attraction recently as Oklahoma or Texas. For six seasons, the Sooners averaged 3.26 million viewers per game, the Longhorns 2.7 million. During the same period, the Trojans averaged 2.17 million per game, the Bruins 1.55 million. While Oklahoma and Texas were the top two clearly defined spots of the Big 12, USC was not significantly higher than Oregon ($2.02 million), while UCLA ranked sixth in the Pac-12.

Of course, this period coincided with Clay Helton’s disappointing tenure at USC, in which the Trojans went 46-32 and won a Pac-12 title. The television networks would know much better how well USC rates when it’s winning big, as it did during the Pete Carroll era.

That said, Texas went 40-36 during the same period and averaged half a million more viewers than the Trojans.

However, there is an obvious reason for that. The conference’s two media partners typically post their best games each week on the free-to-air networks ABC or Fox, where the games typically get higher ratings than they do on cable. Oklahoma and Texas appeared on 46 and 33 such broadcasts, respectively, compared to USC’s 28 and UCLA’s 16.

In total, 73 percent of Fox and ABC’s Big 12 selections included the two outgoing members, compared to 53 percent for the Pac-12. In fact, Oregon was chosen for the first place 18 times, two more than UCLA.

Why, then, aren’t the Big Ten taking over Oregon instead of or along with UCLA? Because the Los Angeles television market is much more valuable.

It currently comprises nearly 5.5 million households. The addition of the Big Ten Network (which is majority owned by Fox) to basic cable tiers is expected to generate tens of millions annually in new subscriber fees, whether or not those subscribers watch a single UCLA game.

Oregon and Washington draw well, but don’t forget Stanford

Oregon, which went to the College Football Playoff the year before this term began, won a Rose Bowl in 2019 and finished in the AP Top 25 in two other seasons, averaged 1.96 million viewers, even without its USC and UCLA games. . For perspective, the remaining top Big 12 program, Oklahoma State, averaged 1.28 million.

The next best performer was a slight surprise: Stanford ($1.83 million), which edged out Washington ($1.73 million). While the Cardinals have been terrible in recent seasons, they were notable ratings draws in the days of Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love. In 2016, an ESPN Friday night game between No. 7 Stanford and No. 10 Washington drew 3.3 million viewers, the third-highest of any Pac-12 game that season.

Stanford also gets significant mileage from its home games every two years against notre dame. The two have played every year (except 2020) since 1997. The four installments during this period averaged 4.8 million. While there’s no guarantee the series will go on forever, ESPN or Fox could pay handsomely just for the rights should they do.

all but Arizona and the state of Oregon averaged at least 1.2 million viewers

Below is a graph of the remaining average TV ratings for the Pac-12 and Big 12 schools, from 2015-19 and 2021. (Games against Oklahoma/Texas and USC/UCLA are excluded.)

That 1.2 million number would be laughed at in the Big Ten or SEC. As Staples recently wroteAuburn, even with outstanding games against Alabama Y Georgia excluded, it has an average audience that is double (2.4 million).

But it may be of relevance given the current Big 12/Pac-12 push taking place further down the court.

That 1.2 million average is more than all but two of the remaining eight Big 12 (Oklahoma State and TCU). Even Oklahoma State ($1.28 million) would only rank seventh among the remaining Pac-12 schools. On the surface, that seems absurd, given the Cowboyswho went 12-2 last season and 57-22 during those six seasons, is light years better on the field than the desperate Buffaloes (33-42).

But I think I know the answer.

Pac-12 After Dark is a great sneak advantage

As much as Pac-12 coaches and fans hate those late games, they may be the league’s saving grace in its next deal.

While the Big 12 and Pac-12 have the same two television partners, their deals are structured differently. The Big 12’s remaining eight had far more of their games relegated to the ratings graveyard that is FS1 than the Pac-12, while the Pac-12 received more pickups by mainline ESPN. And that’s entirely because the league can slot games at 10:30 pm ET, when no other Power 5 leagues are playing.

In 2021, Pac-12 teams appeared in 12 ESPN games that started at 10 p.m. ET or later. Those games averaged 1.34 million viewers, with all but two breaking 1 million.

How night games could be the key to #Pac12 Salvation: “The beauty of the Pac-12 is you can book that late window for 13 weeks straight,” says former ESPN exec @JKosnerhttps://t.co/yXeub7J736

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) July 20, 2022

Because ESPN reserves its previous time slots almost entirely for the Big Ten, SEC and ACC, the best Big 12 cable windows are usually daytime on ESPN2. Ratings-wise, it’s still better to be on mainline ESPN, regardless of start time.

For example, on November 20 of last season, Arizona State and Oregon State, two of the Pac-12’s lowest-draft teams, played an ESPN game at 10:30 p.m. ET that drew 1 ,11 million viewers. In doing so, they narrowly beat a Noon ESPN2 game that included Texas (against West Virginia). It sounds crazy, but this last one, which reached 1 million viewers, took on both No. 4 Ohio State against number 7 state of michigan on ABC (5.3 million) and Clemson against number 10 forest stele on ESPN ($1.6 million), while the Sun Devils and Beavers were the only Power 5 teams still in action.

The Pac-12 might be okay if…

In conclusion, the Pac-12 may be in better shape than would have been assumed three weeks ago, as long as it can hold the remaining 10 schools together.

The league won’t approach the SEC or the Big Ten on its next television deal, but a consensus has recently developed among television pundits that ESPN will likely offer something enticing enough to calm the waters. (Fox, now that you have the existing Big Ten Y USC and UCLA are probably out of the picture). Keep in mind that that new deal will likely include the rights to an additional 30-plus games a year currently airing on the soon-to-be-turned-off Pac-12 network. ESPN would likely put them on its fledgling ESPN+ streaming service.

Of course, if at some point the Big Ten changes their minds about Oregon and Washington, then the remnants of the Pac-12 would be no better off than the remnants of the Big 12. But that doesn’t seem imminent. In the meantime, Commissioner George Kliavkoff should urge those 10 schools to welcome a couple of new members (San Diego State would surely be one), embrace the 10:30 p.m. ET starts and look forward to a new era with more streaming (hello, ESPN+) and possibly no FS1 or Pac-12 Network dumps.

ESPN+ price increases $3.00 on August 23. Based on 22.3 million subscribers, which equates to about $840 million per year in additional revenue. Which university conferences will get a piece of that money? I’m thinking Pac-12 for a West Coast core inventory.

—Bob Thompson (@rltsports) July 22, 2022

The money won’t be $80 million a year like the Big Ten projections for 2024, but it should be very close to the ACC, which got $36.1 million last year.

Like the Pac-12, the rebuilt Big 12 remains to be determined. But based on the ratings for this story, it’s hard to see why the Pac-12 would be in a weaker position.

(Photo: Jeff Halstead/Getty)