It’s that time of year, players will be on the go. Even with his recent six-game winning streak, puppies stand at an abysmal 40-58. That .408 winning percentage gives them a little breathing room to avoid the Cubs’ worst record of all time, but they’re still likely to flirt with a 100-loss season when all is said and done. This is a team in sell mode and trade rumors are driving the content. I am here today with my tips and tricks to not be fooled by rumors and false commercial advertisements.
Blue check marks
This first one is very basic, but it’s really an easy mistake to make. Beware of Ken Rosenthel, Jeff Passsan, and all other Twitter accounts that are based on a generally famous and trustworthy account that reports MLB news. There will be dozens, if not hundreds, of Internet trolls looking to have a little fun trading our favorite players in ridiculous deals. They’ll go to the trouble of setting up your account, downloading the same avatar as the most well-known personality, and even copying your bio. Sometimes they’ll use graphics that mimic Twitter’s blue check mark, so it’s hard to take a look and be sure.
There are still ways to thwart these scammers.
Double check follower accounts before getting too involved in any individual rumors or comebacks. The real Ken Rosenthal has 1.3 million followers and posts a lot of bow ties on his media. It is unlikely that any fraudulent account will be able to achieve that in the short term. Finally, never forget that sometimes top accounts get hacked, so be careful about that too. Who among us could forget jeff passan crypto day?
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Not All Rumors Are Created Equal: Insider Sources Matter
One of the things I always try to keep in mind when looking at any trade rumor is the genesis of the article. Who started the rumour? Do they have an incentive to start it? Can you identify them even a little bit?
There’s a big difference between “MLB executives believe” and “said a source inside the Cubs’ front office.” The former could be rival executives speculating, or even trying to motivate the Cubs to make a particular deal. The latter is inside information from someone affiliated with the team who speaks without identifying himself. “Player X should be available…” could literally mean that someone like me spent a day at Spotrac looking at when contracts and team records expire, put two and two together and determined that team X could move any guy they wanted. not be around next season or the next.
It pays to be skeptical and remember that journalists benefit from engaging content. They have a built-in incentive to make their buzz sound as solid as possible. If they’re resorting to language like “should be available,” you should give it the credit it deserves.
Offers are often announced after the deadline
In 2019 I was finally ahead of the curve. I had my share of the trade deadline ready to go, I was inputting information as it happened. I was flying through analytics and returns. The words flowed. He was ready to set the Cubs on fire for not making a big move with the division on the line. My piece went live within five minutes of the end of the trade deadline and started with this:
For all the talk of a sense of urgency, this team seems to lack urgency at key moments this year. At best, the urgency seemed like a 50-50 gamble, a matter of chance. Will bats show up in a big inning? Who knows? Can the bullpen hold a one-run lead late? Maybe, maybe not. Didn’t have a clear closer for most of the beginning of the season? Keep riding Pedro Strop or Steve Cishek until after you sign Kimbrel it won’t cost you a draft pick anymore. It’s not like eight blown saves could be the difference in baseball’s tightest division in September.
And for this last group of people, I’ll give the Cubs at the trade deadline, where they decided to go big or go home by turning backup catcher Martin Maldonado into Tony Kemp, while also acquiring LOOGY Derek Holland out of consideration. cash and skillful. bullpen arm David Phelps for a minor league arm.
It feels generous to call these fringe tweaks, but let’s take a closer look at what the Cubs have acquired in the 32-year-old Phelps and 27-year-old utility Kemp. You can read more about the Dutch deal here.
Within 15 minutes, the Cubs announced the Nick Castellanos trade and I had to tweet this:
It’s worth waiting up to 30 minutes after the trade deadline to make sure the deals go through.
Prospect lists vary, a lot
We here at BCB are lucky to have Josh Timmers covering the minors, so we know what’s going on with Cubs prospects on the farm. He does a great job of covering the ins and outs and going beyond the one-paragraph writing he can find for prospect scouts around the league.
It’s very tempting during the trade deadline to sidestep that and do your own research. Look, I’m an old debate coach. I am in favor of doing your own research. However, a critical part of doing your own research is knowing your sources very well. One of the reasons prospecting can be so difficult and time-consuming is that scouting requires an enormous amount of knowledge and time. Also, not all prospect lists make the same assumptions.
For example, Baseball America ranked the Cubs farm system 15th entering the 2022 season, FanGraphs pre-draft rankings had the Cubs sixth. There is almost a third of the league between those two rankings, how can they be so different?
Well, there are many reasons. Some MiLB ratings use a methodology that prioritizes proximity to the big boys. Others look at raw talent in the system without regard to when prospects arrive. He may have a really strong farm system, but if all of his prospects are at Low A, the Next Great Cubs Team is still a long way off.
Don’t just copy the most optimistic or pessimistic reading of your favorite players’ prospects. Read them all. Read between lines. Most importantly, look at the methodology that was used in those rankings. Also, remember that baseball prospects are human beings who will face many challenges as they move up to the majors, and prospects are not promises.
Just breathe
Yes really.
In 2016, I was hanging out with my grandmother for her birthday as the biggest Cubs trade deadline of my life loomed for all of us. One of the many fake Ken Rosenthal posted that the Cubs had traded Kyle Schwarber for Aroldis Chapman. I didn’t realize it was a fake account and blurted out a few words that no one should say around her 85 year old grandmother. Luckily for me, this was what I swore to as a seafaring grandma who took it all in stride, unlike my conservative Catholic grandma, who definitely would have felt compelled to say a few novenas for my soul if the situation had been reversed.
The 2021 trade deadline was a lot. I found it painful in the same way bad breakups had been in the past. I do not anticipate that this year will be better. But when the dust clears after August 2 and I find out which team I’m going with Willson Contreras for the rest of the season, baseball will still be baseball. The Cubs will still be playing in the biggest ballpark on the planet and the ivy will still be brown on Opening Day and bright green in June. They won’t lose forever.
Feel your emotions, be upset and vent here if you have to, be excited about the prospects if that’s your jam, but remember we’re all fanatics in our own way. At the end of the day, there are many, many things more important than baseball.