It was a start.
The Blackhawks’ rebuild should be on solid footing after making three first-round picks and eight top-90 picks in this month’s draft.
Time will tell how Kyle Davidson’s first draft as chicagoThe general manager was, of course, but it could be a positive start. And with four more first-round picks and 11 picks in the first three rounds over the next two years, the Blackhawks should have plenty of opportunities to further replenish their prospect pool.
Now, your priority has to be finding “the” piece to put all those players on. They need an anchor. They need a superstar.
To do so, the Blackhawks must position themselves to pick one of the elite players in 2023. NHL Recruit. If they’re going to strip talent from the organization as much as they’ve done, possibly even more depending on what Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews decide to do — the reward has to be getting that generational talent. Otherwise, this is all wasteful and only prolongs your rebuild.
Fortunately for the Blackhawks, there are at least two players in next year’s draft who fall into that superstar category: Connor Bedard, a Canadian center, and Matvei Michkov, a Russian winger. The debate over who will ultimately be the best player in the NHL has been going on for a few years, but most evaluators believe both will be special.
Davidson appears to be putting together a team with Bedard and Michkov in mind.
Our updated Blackhawks depth chart after all recent signings https://t.co/2s9K9zZXqi
—Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) July 25, 2022
The Blackhawks were the sixth-worst team last season, and have since demoted their roster across the board. His annotation, depth and goal have decreased. They will have some competition: the arizona coyotes will be in the mix again, but it’s not unimaginable, especially if Davidson sends more talent at the trade deadline, to envision them as the worst team in the league after 82 games next season.
The Blackhawks won’t admit that’s the plan, but their amateur scouting director, Mike Doneghey, he was pretty honest about his opinion on the top of next year’s draft.
“If you’re going to be bad, this is probably the year to do it because you know what the next three (elections) might be,” Doneghey said recently. “Even this year, you’re not really in love with the top of the draft. But next year, it’s like, yeah, if I’m going to misbehave and get one of those guys, then that’s fine, you can enjoy it more.”
Doneghey and I talk more about next year’s draft, but first let’s look at the odds of the Blackhawks getting one of those talents.
The Blackhawks aren’t guaranteed Bedard or Michkov, even if they finish in last place. The worst team can fall as low as the third pick in the NHL lottery. That’s not the end of the world, as Canadian center Adam Fantilli, the third player Doneghey was referring to, is also heavily touted. He’s not in that top category for many evaluators, but he’s not that far off.
Byron Bader, Data Scientist, NHL Draft Consultant, and Website Editor hockey prospecting, explained to me: “(Bedard and Michkov) both have the first signs of a ‘generational talent.’ The sky-high D-1 and D-2 equivalencies indicate a generational talent: one point per player from more than one game throughout his career. Fantilli doesn’t look exactly the same. He may be a star in his own right, but he doesn’t seem as confident as Bedard and Michkov. We’ll have to wait until next season to find out more about where he moves on.”
What does generational talent mean in Bader’s model? he pointed to sidney crosby, Connor McDavid, auston matthews, John Tavares, Jack Eichel, jack hughes Y patrick kane.
So yes, the Blackhawks could use that to really ignite their rebuild.
Others in that world of exploration feel much the same.
“I think Bedard and Michkov have a chance to be top scorers in the NHL,” said Chris Peters, NHL draft and prospect analyst for FloHockey. “Neither one of them is particularly big or strong at this stage of his career and he’s not a burner either, but they score at a different level than players I’ve seen at his age. We are talking about really special players. I think Bedard might be one of the best pure shooters I’ve ever seen. Michkov is a genius level hockey player. I’ve never seen anyone with his offensive hockey sense and his ability to exploit goaltenders.
“Those two are one of a kind, but Fantilli seems like a franchise building block. He’s fast, he’s big, he’s strong and he knows how to score. There’s a bunch of other good guys in that top 10, too. If Chicago goes through what we think it’s going to go through and ends up with Bedard or Michkov, it’s worth it. If they get Fantilli, it’s probably worth it, but he’s one I need to see more of before I put a future superstar tag on him. The other two I feel pretty confident in.”
the athletic one Scott Wheeler was also at the top of the three players, but he put Bedard in a different class.
“I fully believe that all three players will live up to the hype,” Wheeler said. “Bedard has a superstar ceiling. He’s the kind of prospect that will completely change the trajectory of a rebuilding team and really speed up the process. I expect him to make an immediate impact on the NHL in a way the past No. 1 picks haven’t. With his way of skating, handling the puck, attacking and above all shooting. His ability to swing the puck of his sword from compromised stances is truly unique), I think he has a 50 goal lead.
“And Michkov and Fantilli are also really high-level prospects, A-plus. The former has all the tools of a frontline winger, point per game. And the latter is the great ideal center of any team with skill, power and speed. He has become a tremendous skater. They may not have the ceiling of superstars that Bedard has, but they are very likely to be stars, and there are some who believe stardom may be in the cards for them, too. Three of the best prospects in years.”
Adam Fantilli played for Chicago Steel in the USHL last season. He will play at the University of Michigan next season. (Courtesy of Chicago Steel)
It’s pretty clear that Bedard is the player to pick if the Blackhawks get the first pick. He could be in their NHL lineup as early as the 2023-24 season and may be attractive enough for Kane to stick around to play.
Now, if the Blackhawks ended up with the second pick, that gets more complicated.
Michkov is probably the smart pick considering his potential right now, but drafting him means having to wait longer. He has signed with SKA in the KHL through the 2025-26 season. That means he probably won’t make it to the NHL until at least the start of the 2026-27 season. He then he would be about to turn 22 years old.
Davidson is selling patience to the fans and the front office, and everyone seems to be buying it. But does that continue if they have to wait even longer before another potential superstar arrives? It’s probably too much to ask if the fans are going down and the bottom line is going down. The Blackhawks will probably want to capitalize on and off the ice as quickly as possible if they draft a game-changing player. On the other hand, it probably won’t work out either if you pass up the chance to recruit Michkov because you’re impatient and he becomes a generational talent.
There’s a chance Fantilli will raise his game this season and put himself in that conversation. Some league sources believe the 6-foot-3 Fantilli isn’t that far behind Bedard and Michkov and has some attributes that set him apart.
“I think it’s a great moment,” a league executive said. “He can do everything: score, good skater, makes plays, has skill, he’s physical. He has excellent work habits. He is a legit five tool prospect. The Bedard/Michkov hype is a sore point, but they have (less than six feet). In any other year, (Fantilli) projects as No. 1.”
You can expect the Blackhawks to study all three players well in next year’s draft.
“Obviously we’ll see them a lot,” Doneghey said. “We will see them in all settings, whether it be international tournaments, league games, whatever.”
Seeing Michkov live will be more difficult because currently Russia cannot participate in any international tournament. Doneghey said that he does not have a visa to travel to Russia now, but that he will rely on European amateur scout Niklas Blomgren, who has a visa to travel there, and Anatoly Semenov, a Russia-based professional scout. Doneghey is confident the Blackhawks will know enough about that trio and even more potential first-rounders.
“It’s the three in the top right, but there’s going to be four or five other guys knocking on that door by the time next year rolls around,” Doneghey said.
This season it will be fascinating to follow those players as they compete for a spot atop the 2023 draft. And as painful as the season may be for the Blackhawks and their fans, it will be just as interesting to see if the team can actually touch bottom and finish last to secure a shot at Bedard, Michkov or Fantilli. Because if the Blackhawks don’t finish any of them, the rebuild has already failed.
(Top photo by Connor Bedard: Codie McLachlan/Getty Images)