ANALYSIS: In a make-or-miss league, which Nets will get it right?

in the NBA, offensive efficiency tends to win in the playoffs. But what determines offensive efficiency? The most important factor is shooting. As the pundits like to remind us, it’s a make-or-lose league.

As a result, true shooting percentage is one of the most underrated stats in basketball. Like effective field goal percentage, it takes into account the added value of 3-pointers; but it goes one step further by also taking into account the value of getting to the line and taking free throws. Over the past two seasons, there has been a very strong relationship between teams’ actual shooting percentages and overall offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions). Some teams have done noticeably better or worse than you’d expect based on their shooting proficiency, but offensive efficiency generally increases or decreases at the same rate as actual shooting percentages.

The Nets’ recent fortunes are fairly consistent with the general pattern. In 2020-21, the league’s best true shooting (.611) produced the best offensive efficiency (118.3). In 2021-22, the 11th-best true shooting percentage (.576) produced the 11th-best offensive efficiency (113.6).

The biggest factor in that decline was the 3-point shot. The Nets took fewer 3-point shots last season (31.9 per 100 possessions, down from 36.0) and shot them less accurately (their 3P% dropped from .392 to .361). Its two most prolific 3-point shooters in 2020-21, Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving, missed most of last season, Harris playing just 14 games and Irving 29. Meanwhile, 3-point role players were swapped (Landry Shamet) or loosen up (Jeff Green, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Tyler Johnson) or lose his touch (Blake Griffin dropped from .383, well above his career average, to .262, well below). The only saving grace was the addition of Patty Mills, who hit a team-leading 227 3-pointers, more than Harris, Irving and Seth Curry combined, while she shot .400 from beyond the arc.

Even better than 3-pointers, the best shots in basketball are shots at the hoop. The Nets were also worse last season in that area, taking fewer shots inside 3 feet (23.6 to 21.8 per 100 possessions) and shooting fewer (.659 to .693). Nic Claxton and Andre Drummond only took about 70 percent of their shots (compared to DeAndre Jordan’s 88 percent). Bruce Brown’s shots at the rim dropped from 51 to 39 percent, Griffin’s from 41 to 34 percent, Irving’s from 20 to 9 percent. One reason for those declines is that a less potent 3-point offense allowed defenders to better protect the rim.

Last season’s Nets excelled at mid-range shooting. LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant and Seth Curry were among the most prolific and accurate middle-range shooters in the league. Unfortunately, even unusually efficient midrange scoring tends not to be very efficient. Despite his midrange prowess, Aldridge’s true shooting percentage ranked 49th among NBA centers, because he only took 21 percent of his shots from within three feet, a remarkably low percentage. for a big

Will the Nets regain their offensive dominance next season? Obviously, his prospects depend on who’s on the team once the chaos of the offseason subsides. But the stories of the players currently on the roster provide some clues as to where the shots might be coming from. Next, I projected each player’s contribution to the team’s offensive efficiency based on his actual shooting percentage and career shooting volume. (For those following him at home, this is the player’s actual career shooting percentage minus the 2021-22 league average of .566, multiplied by 2, multiplied by field goal attempts per 100 possessions. adjusted for free throw attempts).

So, there’s a bit of a drop…

Not surprisingly, Durant, a versatile and highly efficient high-volume scorer, is the biggest projected contributor. Irving also takes a lot of shots, but throughout his career he has been only slightly more accurate than the league average last season. (Her actual shooting from him has been better with the Nets, .604, which would be worth an extra 1.6 points per 100 possessions.)

Harris and Curry rank high on the list of projected contributors, a testament to the value of accurate 3-point shooting. So are Claxton and Day’Ron Sharpe, a testament to the value of taking high-percentage shots at the rim.

Another point these projections make clear is that the “scorers” subtract of offensive efficiency if they are below average shooters. Cam Thomas is a good example. Some fans have suggested that he could play a big offensive role off the bench next season. But unless his accuracy improves dramatically, every shot he takes from teammates, even those projected as backups, will make him a major drag on the team’s offensive efficiency.

Of course, none of this is set in stone. Ben Simmons, TJ Warren and Edmond Sumner have all missed a year, or in Warren’s case, more and may need time to get back into shape. The rookies from last season, including Thomas, can improve. However, big jumps in actual shots are rare and more often reflect better shot selection than overall improvement. Claxton is a good example. His true shooting percentage has improved significantly from year to year, not because he has become a better shooter, but because he has stopped trying shots that he rarely hits. (As a rookie, he already made 80 percent of his shots at the rim, but those were only 52 percent of his attempts; last season it was 70 percent of his attempts, while his attempts from 10-plus feet fell from 19 percent to just two percent.)

These projections do not take into account possible differences in playing time. Barring major trades or injuries, the guys at the top of this list are likely to play a lot more than the guys at the bottom, further raising the team’s overall shooting efficiency, if not at the top level of the league from 2020-21. On the other hand, if you remove Durant and Irving from the list, even ignoring the likely negative impact on the shooting efficiency of the remaining players, the Nets look much more like an average or slightly above average shooting team.